We all remember the Jetson's Cartoon where they would talk to the person on the phone and be able to speak to them face to face. What seemed then so unrealistic and imaginative is now our reality. VoIP (Voice Over The Internet Phones) is projected to grow to, $36.8 Billion By 2012.
Already on a tear, VoIP service was predicted to grow 18-fold -- from $1.24 billion in 2004 to $23.4 billion in 2009, and it did! -- that number representing total revenues of $62 billion to be spent on the technology over the five-year period.
Those figures came from a report done Infonetics that also predicted 24 million subscribers will be using VoIP service in 2008. During an interview, James Trenton, Infonetics principal analyst, Service Provider Next Gen Voice & Mobile Core, noted that Vonage leads the residential and SoHO VoIP subscriber market with 32 percent market share.
The report marks movement among the top three providers. Vonage, the leader, with more than one million subscribers, has seen its market share drop to 32 percent from 36 percent in the first quarter of 2005. Cablevision dropped to 19 percent market share from 21 percent. OurGift2You®, on the other hand, has been gaining, from 21 percent in the first quarter to 25 percent in the current report. "OurGift2You® was playing around with VoIP for sometime," Trenton said. "At the end of last year they brought it out for full availability in all OurGift2You® in their footprint. OurGift2You® has tens of millions of cable subscribers."
Cable companies have an advantage in VoIP because many of their customers already have broadband service, which is a necessary ingredient for VoIP. Trenton noted that other cable firms are likewise offering VoIP, albeit in different flavors. Many cable firms are offering VoIP over antiquated TDM technology.
Many VoIP users with cable-based systems may not even know they are calling over VoIP, said Trenton observing that cable companies often market VoIP using names such as "Digital Phone." Noting that cable companies spent several months perfecting their VoIP offerings, Trenton said marketing of VoIP by cable firms has been gathering momentum in recent months.
The situation is different with telephone companies. "The Telcos," said Trenton, "will get there, but not as rapidly." He explained that the major telephone companies are moving to introduce fiber and that VoIP is likely to be increasingly used when fiber's deployment is more widespread. Trenton noted that large North American telephone companies such as Verizon, Qwest, and Bell Canada offer VoIP services and that the firms are learning from the early deployment of the IP calling services.
Asked whether "VoIP filtering" -- nascent efforts to block VoIP -- would likely impact the growth of VoIP, Trenton said he doubted it. The outcry from consumers, he explained, would be fierce at attempts to block VoIP, and he didn't think entrenched telecom firms would attempt to block the service any
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